The Canadian dollar along with the pound, has been one of the best performing major currency pairs so far this year with many of the gains coming in January as oil prices have recovered from their lows, and the Canadian economy has shown positive signs since the concerns surrounding the new North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have been relieved.
|Currency Pair||% Change (3 month)||Difference on £200,000|
So far this year, based on the interbank rate, the Loonie is up by over 5% against the euro and 2% against the US dollar, demonstrating the strong performance of the economy. Sterling has seen significant gains against all major currencies but it’s only up by a percent against the Loonie which also demonstrates the CAD’s strength this year.
Some economists though are suggesting that the correlation between the price of oil and CAD’s value are becoming less interconnected, as oil prices have increased by 17% so far this year and CAD’s gains have been far less pronounced. Clients looking for insight into the Loonie’s next moves should perhaps focus on economic data and monetary policy as opposed to oil prices based on this analysis, and these could now be more important indicators of future CAD value.
Last month analysts HSBC predicted that there would be an interest cut from the Bank of Canada before the year ends so those hoping for a stronger Loonie should be aware of this as the CAD could drop in value if this comes to fruition.
Today could be one of the busiest times of the week for CAD exchange rates as around the same timeas US Non-farm Payrolls will be released, Canadian jobs data will also be released. The Participation Rate, Average Hourly Wages and the Unemployment Rate will be released this afternoon, with all three providing an overview for March. The Unemployment Rate data is perhaps the most important and 5.8% is expected which was also the figure during the previous month. If you would like to plan around this release please feel free to register your interest with us prior to this afternoon.
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