The euro has weakened against the pound over the last week as it appears as though the Brexit talks may be nearing a conclusion. The talks have been favouring the UK in the last couple of weeks and Prime Minister Theresa May has suggested that the deal is 95% done.

The UK appear very hopeful that a deal will be done in the near future and even Brexiteer Nigel Farage has suggested that the UK will be able to ratify it in Parliament which has weakened the euro vs sterling exchange rate creating some excellent opportunities to buy euros with pounds.

Currency Pair% Change in 30 daysDifference on £200,000
GBPEUR2.2%€5,050 EUR
Retail Sales due out on Wednesday

Negative Economic Data ahead for the Eurozone?

On Monday morning the Eurozone released an Investor Confidence survey for November and this showed a lower than expected figure which weakened the euro against the pound as investors appear to be concerned over the future of the Brexit and it impact not only for the UK but for the continent.

This morning the Eurozone will release Markit Services PMI data for October as well as the latest Producer Price Index. The Eurozone has shown some concerning economic data in recent weeks and with Retail Sales due out on Wednesday we could see some euro weakness by the middle of the week if the data highlights a concern on the continent.

Italian Budget Row Continues

The European Union has continued to be rocked by the problems over Italy’s draft budget. Eurozone finance ministers have been meeting in Brussels to discuss the proposed budget which breaks current EU rules. The draft means an increase in the trade deficit of 0.6% rather than the required reduction of 0.8% which was previously agreed back in July by Italy.

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has stated that the budget breaks EU rules and that ‘what is at stake is our common currency’. Italy has just over a week to revise its current plans and at the moment the country is in a stalemate with the EU. Indeed, if Italy does not change its plans then this could result in a fine of 0.2% of its GDP payable to the European Union.

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