Amid the ongoing Brexit negotiations the key topic of interest is the Irish border and whether an agreement can be made prior to the EU Summit in June. The Sterling report below discusses how the potential updates could affect exchange rates in the coming months. The table below shows the difference in a number of currencies you could have achieved when buying £200,000.00 during the high and low points of the past month.

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000
GBPEUR1.77%€4078
GBPUSD4.05%$11,112
GBPNZD3.32%NZD $13,086

Pound trends switch on Wednesday

Whilst the Italian political situation has dominated market sentiment since last weekend, GBPEUR fell yesterday after some impressive German data releases.

At the same time, the Pound gained half a cent against the Dollar during yesterday’s trading as slightly underwhelming American economic data was released.  

This will come as a relief for Dollar buyers who have seen the Pound lose around 10 cents in the last six weeks. Conversely it seems that GBP and Euro rates are at a stalemate, with Brexit and uncertainty in Italy seemingly cancelling each other out.

Property figures for the UK out today

Property figures today

The fact there were no releases for the Pound yesterday seems to be the reason for its volatility in comparison to the USD and Euro.

This morning mortgage approvals will be released at 08:30 by the Bank of England (BoE). This is a leading indicator of the UK Housing market - mortgage growth represents a healthy housing market which can stimulate the UK economy. Today’s figure is expected to be slightly healthier than the previous consensus so we could see the Pound rally.

A positive figure will help the Pound but I feel events outside the UK will determine today’s currency fluctuations.

Irish border issue to be resolved next month

Brexit has been on everybody’s minds for the last two years with the main issues being the Northern Irish border and negotiating a Trade deal. Finding an agreement at next month’s summit is a priority as the Irish Prime Minister and European Ministers do not feel a withdrawal resolution can be negotiated without an agreement on the Irish border.

Theresa May has long said she does not want a hard border separating the two Irelands nor does she want to break up the UK by allowing Northern Ireland to remain a part of the customs Union.

I am not confident that an agreement will be met by the end of next month and expect the uncertainty and negative media coverage to heap more pressure on Sterling.

However there has been an intention to negotiate behind the scenes from both parties and for all we know, details of a resolution could well have been agreed. I advise anyone with a Sterling requirement to contact our Account Managers today before the month starts.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.