Reports yesterday evening from the Times have suggested that European officials are planning to delay Brexit until 2020 due to the heavy defeat the Prime Minister suffered Tuesday evening. The reports were released when Germany’s economy minister Peter Altmaier exclaimed that the UK need time to find a consensus. Furthermore President of France Emmanuel Macron has also stated this week that it’s likely the UK will need more time which will overlap the European elections, but he didn’t say that this wasn’t feasible. If it’s the case that EU officials offer an extension, I expect the pound will rally in the short term as the Prime Minister will be given a lifeline to achieve a deal.
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This week official German growth figures for 2018 were released at 1.5% which was the slowest growth rate since 2015. Reports suggested that the slowdown came in the second half of 2018. In addition the car industry is being labelled as one of the main reasons for the slowdown due to the lack of global demand and the changes in emissions around the globe.
As we know, Germany is the powerhouse of Europe and if a recession is on the cards this could have a major impact on the value of the euro. For clients that are converting euros into pounds, keeping an eye on the ongoing Brexit saga would be my recommendation however the German recession should not be dismissed in the months to come.
European inflation data is set to be released at 09:00am this morning. The consensus is for change therefore if the numbers are realised as predicted this should be a non-event. However as the European Central Bank cut the quantitative easing program in December, if inflation starts to fall this could cause a major headache for the Central Bank and consequently the euro could suffer.
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