Sterling exchange rates have been in the headlines many times since the Brexit vote almost 2 ½ years ago, although recently the steep fluctuations appear to have subdued. Financial markets are pencilling in a major move in the lead up to the Brexit departure date next year though. According to reports by the Financial Times the next 3 months implied volatility is back to the levels last since in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum.
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The next date when we could see major market movement will be next Tuesday’s key vote within Parliament regarding May’s Brexit plan, as she attempts to push it through Parliament. The general consensus is that May will fail to win the support she needs to carry out her plans and I think that how this vote pans out could determine the Brexit route, and also the Pound’s value as we move forward.
This week there have been calls from Conservatives to delay the vote as May looks destined to lose, and although Downing Street has so far rejected these calls, some political experts have claimed she could lose by as much as 200 votes. Should May receive little support, and therefore the chances of the deal being amended slightly in an attempt to keep everyone satisfied are blown out of the water, I think there’s a chance we could see Sterling sold off quite dramatically. This is because the chances of either a no-deal or her potentially stepping down will increase and this added uncertainty would in my opinion be Sterling negative.
Theresa May has sent out 30 MPs today to try and drum up support for her plan before the key vote next Tuesday, and the televised debate between May and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, which the BBC pulled out of earlier this week has now officially been called off.
Whilst Brexit is the main market mover for GBP exchange rates at the moment and there are no major economic updates today, there could potentially be movement on Monday. At 9.30am there will be both Industrial and Manufacturing figures released. Perhaps the most important release on Monday comes out at the same time when GDP figures measuring the UK’s economic output will come out. Do register your interest with us if you wish to be kept updated in the event of a major market movement.
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