US GDP Forecast and Trump’s plan

With US GDP missing its target figure for GDP last month tomorrow’s release will be eagerly anticipated for anyone with a US Dollar requirement be it buying or selling. The figure is due to come out at 2.1% so if the revision is positive then expect US Dollar strength against the Pound and the Euro. Shortly after this comes the release of February Consumer Confidence figures and this will make interesting reading as to how consumers feel since Trump’s first couple of months in power.

Donald Trump has promised to deliver big tax cuts in his campaign and this will be covered in his speech due late evening US time. He has pledged to cut taxes as well and making them simpler and fairer as well as cutting regulation in the financial markets.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has promised tax cuts before the Congressional break in August and suggested that tax cuts and deregulation could boost economic growth by 3% by the end of next year.

However, interestingly enough a number of major broadcasters were banned from an informal press briefing on Friday including the New York Times, which said it was the first time in its history that it had been banned from attending the White House briefing.

This is another demonstration of Trump trying to assert his power and one of the reasons for the ban is that the Chief of Staff Reine Pribus has asked the FBI to publicly question the media about stories written about the trump campaign and Russia.

Warren Buffett has publicly spoken out about US business growth and Tuesday’s GDP will make interesting reading. In a statement to his shareholders Buffett has backed American businesses to grow and be ‘worth far more in the years ahead’. As such a successful investor if his comments are accurate it sounds very likely that we’ll see further interest rate rises in the US this year.

Personally I think we could see GBP/USD rates drop below 1.20 in the weeks ahead. Even though there is an uncertain future ahead with Trump the Pound is under pressure politically with next month’s Article 50 issue. Therefore, if you need to buy US Dollars it may be worth organising something in the near future by getting in touch with your dedicated broker. Call today on 01494 725 353 or email myself - Tom Holian at teh@currencies.co.uk to discuss your requirement.

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