Boris Johnson’s negotiations with the EU are still yet to be confirmed fruitful as the House of Commons Speaker John Bercow denied MPs the chance to vote for his deal. Bercow sighted that you couldn’t bring the same motion twice in a Parliamentary session, however some pointed that Theresa May brought the same Withdrawal Agreement on three occasions.
Bercow has come under scrutiny for being particularly one sided in the whole Brexit debate, coming to boiling point today with MP Sir Bernard Jenkin today in the House of Commons suggesting it’s “remarkable” how often he’s “pleased one lot and not the other”.
Today however, the real debate begins as the Withdrawal Bill without a meaningful vote will be brought to scrutiny in the House of Commons. This was the theory behind the Letwin amendment that we saw voted through on Saturday and it’s to make sure when MP’s come to finally vote on the Bill it will be engrained in law and a No Deal will be averted. The big question is whether all of this can be achieved before the 31st October.
There could be many amendments raised and the Speaker will decide which ones to have votes on in the Commons. Considering Bercow’s latest involvement, it’s unlikely he will do the Government any favours and the Withdrawal Agreement Bill may be edited. If there are significant changes made, Boris may have to get approval from the EU, this could start to have a major effect on the chances of Brexit being concluded in the next nine days.
Germany in the next few days is expected to release a decline in second quarter GDP output. This will take the economy into a technical recession. Whilst the data is yet to be released the German central Bundesbank has primed the markets for the news siting global trade tensions as the reason for the calling.
Adding to concerns there isn’t much hope that the final quarter of 2019 will bring the economy out of recession. Being the powerhouse of Europe, investors and markets will treat this news with real caution and the euro could come under some pressure. The IMF have warned that as cracks start to appear across the whole global economy there will be a slowdown across many of the global markets, however Germany looks like one of the first to crack.
The Brexit debate today coupled with the official German GDP data release in the next few days could certainly help to cause a significant amount of uncertainty. Christine Lagarde who is incoming as the next ECB President has warned that Brexit will cause damage across the Bloc as well as the UK suggesting, “everybody will be a little well-off as a result” of Brexit.
The Current Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau has won the election overnight, however he has lost his previous majority. Trudeau leads the Liberals and has chosen not to try and form a coalition but try to lead with a minority. He has won only 146 seats with 170 being the majority so it will be tricky for them to make significant changes. The Conservatives have made quite large inroads into the Canadian Parliament winning 27 more seats than they previously won.
The Green party have also won three seats, however some had predicted that they may have done better than this with the focus towards climate change being a hot topic. The Canadian dollar hasn’t moved against sterling even with the news overnight as many arguably saw this coming in the last few days. Any developments in Brexit are more likely to cause significant changes in the GBP/CAD rate.
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