Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney yesterday afternoon delivered one of his most optimistic statements as the BoE’s leader, hinting towards more than expected interest rate hikes coupled with hope surrounding the Brexit process.
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Mark Carney is notorious for causing the pound to lose ground and although at the start of his speech he was true to form, by the end of his comments sterling was still near the day's highs. Recent forecasts for the Central Bank alluded to there being one hike between now and 2021. However, if there was to be progress in Brexit with some of the uncertainty clearing there may be a few hikes in that time.
Sterling has gained in the past few days off the back of rumours of Brexit progress, however things still seem to have taken a back seat, especially following the Gavin Williamson debacle this week. In the next few weeks, as we move towards the European Elections, Brexit talks will return to the fray as the Government tries to find a solution before 23rd May.
It’s worth remembering that Chancellor Philip Hammond wanted the Brexit talks over before this point and if the elections are held in this country the Members of European Parliament (MEPs) will hopefully never take their seats in the EU Parliament, were his words.
As many had anticipated, the local elections look to have brought significant losses for the Conservative and Labour Parties with the Liberal Democrats looking to be the major winners. Following the delay to Brexit, there was always the high chance that the Conservatives would lose seats, however considering the fact that some estimations were in the thousands, so far it looks to be about a 300 net loss.
The Labour Party have a net loss of around 80 seats at this point, but they’re failing to do as well as they did in the 2015 elections across these regions. The local elections could be viewed as more of an indication of sentiment about how the country is feeling as opposed to having too much effect with the current Parliament Brexit Impasse.
What it does go to show is that when the whole country votes for MEP’s in 20 days’ time, we could see more of the same changes from voters, not backing the main parties.
UKIP, Green Party and Lib Dems have all done well with many sighting Brexit frustrations as the reason for the changes. This potentially could bode well for Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party as clearly the country feels Brexit has taken long enough. Sterling this morning remained unchanged from the events overnight as there arguably isn’t a direct impact to the current situation.
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