This report looks at the impact of the Budget and this morning's GDP update and how these events could affect your currency transfer. The table below shows the market movements for a number of currency pairings in the last 30 days:
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
The Pound has made some gains versus the Euro after the Chancellor announced his most recent Autumn Statement.
After the debacle earlier in the year when the Tories lost a huge amount of young voters, this budget was clearly an attempt to win them over. Stamp duty has been abolished immediately for first time buyers purchasing properties up to £300,000. The Chancellor also announced £44bn in Government support to increase construction of new homes to meet the target of 300,000 each year by the middle of the next decade.
Hammond has also increased the tax-free personal allowance to £11,850 by next April as well as increasing the higher-rate tax threshold to £46,350 whilst also raising the national living wage by 4.4% in April 2018.
However, although a number of these announcements have gone down well productivity, growth and business investment has been revised downwards. Although, having said that the Chancellor has moved the rise in business rates to be pegged with CPI rather than RPI, which is a lot higher. The Pound has stabilised after the announcement and I think the general consensus is that this is a fair Budget.
The first estimate of UK GDP figures for the third quarter are due to be released this morning at 9:30am. Expectations are for 1.5% year on year so anything different is likely to cause a lot of volatility for Sterling exchange rates.
Gross Domestic Product figures for the UK have been generally going in a downwards direction since this time last year when the figures were as high as 2.3%. It is clear that the UK is still struggling with the uncertainty caused by the Brexit talks and as I have written many times previously, until we get further clarity then I think the Pound will remain under pressure in the long term.
The Brexit talks are due to resume in mid-December and Downing Street has suggested that the issue of the Irish border could be resolved by then, even though Dublin is part of the threat to veto the Brexit talks over the divorce bill issue.
The Irish border issue is clearly more important than just trade but Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney has stated, ‘This is about the division on the island of Ireland… we’re not wiling to move on without more assurance on the border.’
With the talks set to take centre stage in mid-December this highlights the importance of being kept up to date with what is happening with the markets by using an experienced currency broker. At Foreign Currency Direct our dealers have an average of 8 years-experience which is unrivalled in the industry.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me directly at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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