This Australian Dollar report looks at the latest Unemployment figures for Australia and the outlook for AUD exchange rates. In the table below you can see high to low GBPAUD rate movement when exchanging £200,000 during the last 2 weeks.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
The main talking point for the Australian Dollar this week and most anticipated data release so far has been the unemployment report for Australia which was released this morning with no change from the expected 5.5%.
Despite the labor report being the main focus for this week for Australian Dollar exchange rates, the markets are less concerned with this release and are more concerned with wage growth figures and when this will start to rise. Earlier this week the Commonwealth Bank of Australia changed their interest rate forecast from two throughout 2018 to zero.
Other leading institutions such as Westpac have noted that their growth outlook is likely to change in the coming weeks and could be a major factor in pushing GBPAUD through 1.80.
I personally believe that the markets are still holding on to the belief that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise rates this year in order to keep up with the base rate in America.
If an interest rate rise looks unlikely I would expect the AUD to begin to give up much of its long term gains, making its way back to 2 Aussie Dollars to the Pound.
For any clients in the short term, next week could provide the answers that clients are looking for. Two weeks after the interest rate decision the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes to the interest rate decision. The meeting could provide further scope as to whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates as planned, or if they have other plans.
A weaker outlook on interest rates down under coupled with positive UK data could provide some excellent opportunities for GBPAUD buyers. By setting a limit order or rate alert with your trader you could make sure you’re trading at the right time with any market movements in your favor.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.