It’s a quiet week for Australian data releases, with Home Loan numbers released in the hours of Tuesday morning the main data release to look out for this week. January’s numbers are set to be released at 1% which would be 7.1% higher than last month’s figure. Over the last 12 months, the property market down under has been causing major problems for the Australian dollar. Lending standards alongside the global slowdown has caused property prices to take a tumble in the major cities. If the home loan numbers fail to hit 1%, the Australian dollar could have a tough week as it increased the chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting interest rates this year.
|Currency Pair||% Change in 1 month||Difference on £200,000|
In recent times the pound has been making inroads against the Australian dollar and the interbank GBPAUD rate has increased by 11 cents over the last 3 months. To put this into monetary value a £200,000 transfer would now be worth and additional $22,000.
The global slowdown and the trade war between China and the US is putting a major strain on the Australian dollar as a commodity currency. The amount of Iron Ore and Coal being sold to China has slowed and this is a reason why the Australian dollar has been losing value. Until the US and China can reach a deal it's possible that the Australian dollar will remain under pressure.
However Brexit negotiations are likely to be the most important driver for GBPAUD exchange rates. If Theresa May has managed to sway MPs to vote in favour of her Brexit deal I expect the pound to make further inroads against the Australian dollar. However, if MPs decide to extend Article50 or vote to crash out of the EU this could have a negative impact on the pound and rates could fall to levels we become accustom to last year.
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