It’s been a volatile month for GBP/AUD exchange rates, as indicated from the table above. The Pound had made a move towards 2.05 at last week’s high but the AUD found support under this level and has now dropped below 2 following better than expected GDP figures overnight. The official reading of 1.1% growth came in above the expected 0.8% and this helped to drive the pair below the key 2 threshold.
Whilst there are many factors that will influence exchange rates it is the current uncertainty surrounding the UK economy, which seems to be intermittently dragging the Pounds value down. On the flip side you still have the on-going market concern surrounding the demise of the AUD, brought about by a downturn in economic data and poor growth in China, which in turn has caused the Australian export industry to suffer.
What is most poignant top me is that both the BoE & Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remain committed to keeping their relevant currencies values in check. This is causing even more problems for investors and analysts trying to forecast trends in the market. It seemed as though the UK economy was being viewed as the lesser of the two evils but after developments overnight we may now find the AUD find support around 2, ahead of a key month for the UK. Any reports of the upcoming referendum vote have the potential to weaken the Pound extremely quickly, so anyone holding AUD may look to take advantage of this unexpected move.
Looking at the key data for the week and those clients holding AUD will be keeping a close eye on their latest Retail Sales figures but it is Thursday’s trade balance data that may be this week’s key market trigger. The markets are expecting an improvement on last month’s figure and with so much emphasis on this facet of their economy, expect the markets to react accordingly.
Personally I would be keen to protect myself ahead of this month’s UK referendum, as I fully expect the Pound to weaken if we do see an OUT vote and I still feel the downside risk outweighs the upside gains.
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