The Australian dollar continues to face an uncertain outlook ahead as the health of the Australian economy is questioned at a time when the US and China are still yet to find a breakthrough in the ongoing trade negotiations. The Australian housing market is extremely topical at present having seen price falls in the major cities to include Sydney and Melbourne, which is causing concern for the Reserve Bank of Australia amidst signs the Australian economy could be set for a downturn.
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The Australian dollar is heavily impacted by the strength of both the Chinese and g lobal economies. The Aussie could see better times ahead though on the hope that there will be a rebound in China’s economy. Even if a US China trade deal is not agreed then there is an expectation that China will seek to boost growth this year by introducing its own measures, something that could bode well for the Australian dollar. Such monetary or fiscal stimulus from China to try and reignite growth could end up benefitting the Australian dollar as demand for Australia’s commodities grows, giving a boost to the economy. For the moment the next move on interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) looks set to be down rather than up. National Australia Bank are now forecasting two rate cuts this year, one in July and again in November.
Those with a pending GBP to AUD requirement should be set for an immensely volatile few days due to the uncertainty in British politics in these final stages of the Brexit negotiations. Interbank rates for GBP to AUD rocketed yesterday, with gains of over 1% for the pair. It is probable that there will be major market reaction today as the detail of the Brexit deal agreed last night in Strasbourg becomes known, as well as news on how the meaningful vote pans out in Parliament. If no deal is removed from the table then the pound could strengthen and make further inroads against the Australian dollar. It is worth highlighting that anything could happen in these next few weeks and whilst Parliament have expressed a strong view to try and avoid a no deal, nothing can be discounted at this crucial time.
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