Surprise victory for Trump all but certain now, how will this impact the Australian Dollar?

This has been a year on the currency markets where investors have been forced to run for the hills on multiple occasions, and on the Australian Dollar, this is one of the few currencies where this is really telling on each occasion.

The actors who move the exchange rates every few seconds are the commercial traders at high street institutions who move the volumes necessary to affect the average buy and sell prices.

In times of uncertainty, the Australian Dollar rarely does well. This is because it is deemed a more ‘high risk currency’. This is the opposite of a safe haven in the fact that the currency rarely holds its value comfortably. This is true of the Australian Dollar because, due to the economy’s high dependence on its mineral exports, the currency is highly linked to the commodities market.

So this is why, at the time of writing, with Trump now seemingly the favourite to win, the Australian Dollar has lost 3 percent of its value today and the Swiss Franc, a traditional safe-haven, has gained over 1% against the Pound.

Will this GBP/AUD rally continue?

Buying Australian Dollar rates are now up at their highest levels in over a month. But anyone with a GBP/AUD requirement should not be complacent.

The events in the US should be viewed with a pinch of salt. The transition of power is not immediate. Should Trump win he will not be able to take the reins until January. This will likely be a news story which will fade away within the next few weeks as it did in 2012.

So this narrative diverting investors away from the high yielding but risky Australian Dollar will likely fade, and with the current anxiety still much more prevalent surrounding the Pound, Australian Dollar buyers may be wise to seize these gains and consider moving sooner rather than later.

You can contact your account manager to discuss your options to seize any further peaks which may emerge and to safeguard your transfer from any potential backtrack on GBP/AUD rates of exchange. Call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here to retrieve a quote.


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