The current GBP/EUR trading levels has meant that Euro sellers have found themselves in the best climate to exchange their Euros for Sterling since the start of the year. The Euro report below looks ahead to the interest rate decision soon to be made by the ECB on Thursday, with the table below showing the range of exchange rates between Sterling and EUR during the past trading week, showing the difference in return you could have achieved when selling £200,000.00 during the high and low points.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
There has been a drop-off of approximately 3.6% in the Pounds value against the Euro since April, which in monetary terms has meant that a well-timed transfer, based on €200,000 would currently achieve around £6,200 more than it would have only a few months ago.
In contrast to this, the EUR has weakened almost 8 cents against the USD since the highs seen in February, of 1.25.
Much of the drop off against the Greenback has been influenced by the US president Donald Trump’s bullish approach to trade negotiation, whilst much of the strength gained against GBP has been down to UK’s uncertainty over Brexit.
Any major EUR movement this week will likely hinge on both the interest rate and deposit rate decision due on Thursday in addition to commentary made during the monetary policy statement that will follow.
Both interest rates and deposit rates are expected to be kept on hold, in line with a reference made by Citigroup Investment Bank economists that the ECB is on ‘autopilot’, but according to a Bloomberg survey, it is expected that despite the low chance of hike in rates this week, it is likely that the ECB President Mario Draghi will raise rates before his term as president ends at the end of next year.
Despite the lower chance of any considerable EUR movement later in the week, there are economic releases earlier this week that could contribute to some favourable market movement.
Markit PMI (purchasing managers index) data will be released tomorrow which will give an indication of the current economic climate of an identified industry sector. The releases will provide data for not only key economies within the Eurozone, but also for the bloc as a whole, so positive data could see Euro gains early in the week.
If you are planning a transfer involving EUR this week, it is worth keeping in touch with your account manager here, or alternatively register for a free trading account to discuss your requirements with a broker.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.
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