GBPEUR exchange rates have entered a volatile period with 2 weeks to go before the referendum. TV debates will be dominating the news this week which may put further pressure on the Pound. You can also view live exchange rates at any time here.

Sterling exchange rates have already had a very difficult start to June and with just 2 weeks to go before the UK votes in the EU referendum Sterling is under a great deal of pressure. The vote is clearly the main driver for Sterling and one thing is clear is that until we have the certainty of a vote then Sterling could continue to feel the pressure.

The television debate between Nigel Farage and David Cameron did little to help Sterling even though arguably Cameron came across better of the two. The latest opinion polls appear to have the Leave vote leading and although I would be surprised to see us vote to Leave the European Union, as the vote is democratic, we are still on tenterhooks.

Looking back at the two previous events which caused big movements for Sterling exchange rates both the UK general election and the Scottish referendum caused big movements for Sterling against all major currencies.

In the run up to both events Sterling Euro exchange rates fell by as much as 5% in the run up but once the results were announced we saw Sterling recover the losses very quickly. However, this time around we could possibly see the Euro strengthen vs Sterling as if the UK decides to stay in the European Union then we could see a longer term and more stable future for the EU.

UK data does little to help Sterling

After a 3-year low the month before both UK Manufacturing data as well as Industrial Production data came out much better than expected for April. This would typically help improve Sterling exchange rates but with the EU vote a fortnight away the economic data is having little impact for exchange rates at the moment.

Indeed, the British Retail Consortium announced some very positive Retail Sales growth on Monday night and this helped to boost Sterling but the positive movement only lasted a few hours.

With Boris Johnson due to go head to head vs Nicola Sturgeon this evening we could see further volatility tomorrow morning. However, prior to this we see the release of the UK’s latest set of Trade Balance figures with expectation for -£3.3bn so anything different could cause movement for Sterling albeit short term.

We are approaching the last 2 weeks before the EU referendum and clients needing to make currency transfers may want to get in touch with us. Call us on 01494 725 353 or email teh@currencies.co.uk.

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