This report will take a look at the cost of sending money abroad and factors that could affect your currency transfer, focusing on:
- ü Pound Euro – Spanish news
- ü USD this week
- ü Australian Dollar Forecast
The table below shows the percentage movement of exchange rates over the last month along with the extra currency you could have bought if buying with £200,000.
| Currency Pair | % Change | Difference on £200,000 |
|---|---|---|
| GBP EUR | 2% | €,150 |
| GBP USD | 2.6% | $8,250 |
| GBP AUD | 3.35% | AUD 10,250 |
Pound Euro – Spanish news
Over the last week pound exchange rates have remained fairly flat with little movement however this changed yesterday when the Euro gained nearly a cent. This created the best time to sell Euros in nearly 2 months, trading at the high yesterday would have made you over £500 for every €100,000 sold back. This market movement was down to a sudden demand for Euros by city traders and again shows how quickly you need to be to take advantage. If you need to complete an exchange and would like to trade at the best price, register your interest via email hse@currencies.co.uk
Over the next week I agree with most specialists that Spain will become the main story; their Stock markets are at a near 20 year low, unemployment is at a record high and their banking system is failing. Yesterday data showed their economy had shrunk by 1.3% in the second quarter of 2012, while the country’s most economically important region, Catalona, said it needed a €5 billion rescue package from Madrid. Even the Spanish deputy Financial Minister said that “the worst is yet to come.”
The Bank of Spain estimates it may have up to €180 billion in bad debt which many think may be more than the Eurozone can raise. As a result I would expect GBPEUR to have a range of 3 cents from current levels over the next few weeks in either direction. Please don’t just assume it will push GBPEUR up as we are unsure whether the UK will have to contribute to the bailout. If you are exchanging currency contact us today and we can pro-actively help you try and catch your target rate.
USD this week
US Consumer Confidence came in better than expected yesterday helping USD buyers buy near a 2 month high.
I would expect the dollar to remain volatile in the next 7 days with US GDP figures today at 13.30 and Factory Orders on Friday at 13.30. It will give a clearer picture of the health of the US economy and expectations are for an improving view.
The trend for Cable (GBPUSD) has been positive recently but I would expect this to change as the European crises concerns intensify. If you need to buy dollars in the coming weeks now may be the perfect time to limit your exposure by utilising a forward contract. To speak to a specialist and discuss all of your options please contact the trading floor direct on 0800 328 5884 or +0044 1494 725 353.
Australian Dollar Forecast
Yesterday data from Australia showed a drop in new home sales, this helped create a near 2 month high for AUD buyers, making a difference of over $5,125 for every £100,000 traded.
I personally however expect the trend to return to continual AUD strength. The simple reason is that even though their growth forecast has been revised down to 2.7%, it still remains significant better than the near zero expected by the Bank of England for the pound.
Key data Watch – AUSTRALIA Private Sector Credit - Friday 2:30 and expected to climb making the AUD more expensive to buy.
