Investors take aim at the German Elections this Autumn which could have implications for Brexit. Angela Merkel is expected to win a fourth term as German Chancellor and markets already know her position on Brexit. The below table shows Pound to Euro exchange rate movements and the difference you could have received when trading between the high and low point of yesterday’s trading session.

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000

German Election – Euro Impact

euro balancing coinWith a new cabinet in the French government in place the next major focus for the Eurozone will be the German election 24th September 2017. The Euro is likely to see considerable volatility nearer the time as the markets speculate which party will be in power just as we saw in the recent French election. The outcome in Germany has far reaching consequences for those clients with a GBP/EUR requirement either buying or selling Euros. The reality is that the pace of Brexit negotiations is likely to be slow until a new German government is formed in the autumn.

Britain is the second largest contributor into the EU budget and when that contribution ceases to be paid it will ultimately be Germany that will plug that hole.

Germany will invariably have the biggest say on the matter which leaves the UK with another four months of uncertainty which should continue to keep the pressure on the price of sterling until greater clarity over Brexit is offered.

Euro slips on dovish ECB minutes

The minutes from the last European Central Bank (ECB) meeting have shown that although risks to the EU have continued to decline and that the EU is currently seeing the best growth in ten years, the ECB is reluctant to trigger an unravelling of all the stimulus that has been used. It would suggest that there is likely to be little change at the next meeting in June and that there will be no change to its asset purchasing scheme which is still in place. This is likely to keep some pressure on the Euro as the European markets also monitor events in the US, Britain and China.

Data is light from the Eurozone today with consumer confidence figures released this afternoon which although expected to be weak may show a small improvement from last month.

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