This Pound Sterling update examines factors that could affect GBP exchange rates this week, looking at the set of inflation data that is due for the UK tomorrow. The below table shows the market movements for a number of currency pairings in the last 30 days:

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000
GBP/EUR2.29%€5,100
GBP/USD4.12%$10,350
GBP/JPY5.52%¥1,545,800

It was a strong day in the currency market on Friday for GBP, rallying by 0.70% to 1.14 against EUR and 1.32% to 1.30 against USD, breaking key 1.14 and 1.30 respective resistance levels on the news Brexit Minister Joyce Anelay finally acknowledged the UK would have to pay a “fair” divorce bill in a written statement to Parliament.

Inflation figures the fundamental driver of GBP this week

A host of key UK inflation based economic data releases are published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday morning at 9:30am:

  • Producer Price Input Index – a measurement of the change in the price of goods and services bought by UK manufacturers, previously 11.6%.
  • Producer Price Output Index – a measurement of the change in the price of goods and services sold by UK manufacturers, previously 3.6%.
  • Consumer Price Index – measures the change in the price of goods and services bought by consumers, giving the market an insight into the cost of living and the squeeze on their finances, previously 2.9%.

Personally, I believe if readings exceed last month’s figures it may worry investors about the future spending and investment levels of UK consumers and manufacturers. With the possibility to send GBP on a downward trajectory against its major counterparts, and a real potential to see 1.12 and 1.28 once again for GBP/EUR and GBP/USD respectively by the end of the week.

If you have a GBP selling requirement it may be wise to take advantage of the Sterling’s recent gains before they disappear, a £250,000 transfer today could earn you an extra €2,000 or $4,250 when compared to Friday morning.

To keep track of current interbank exchange rates visit our live rates page.

Whilst I believe the UK inflation data releases will be the main driver of GBP paired rates this week we can never rule out Brexit related influences, which could also have the potential to cause sudden market movements as Joyce Anelay’s did on Friday afternoon.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement you can speak with any of our currency brokers by calling 0044 1494 725 353.