UK GDP Figures and Sterling Exchange Rates

This afternoon at 3pm we have the latest set of estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) which is a key economic data set. The NIESR provide a rolling 3 month estimate of the UK’s GDP and it is seen as a good indication as to the overall performance of the countries economy. Today’s announcement will indicate the economic strenth or weakness for the first quarter of this year and with the official figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) due later this month it will give a good indication as to how the data may come out. Last month the NIESR estimated that for the previous 3 months the UK economy had grown by 0.8% and so any figure stronger than this, especially if we breach the 1% mark could provide a lot of Sterling strength. However, with the adverse weather at the start of this year having a damaging impact on the economy it could prevent the GDP figures from rising too high. I do expect the figure to be strong though, especially considering the amount of strong economic data we have seen for the UK this year and as a result we could see some Sterling strength this afternoon.

If this is the case it would follow on from the positive news we have already had this morning where UK manufacturing figures showed the strongest rise since 2011 which is further good news for the UK and has led to Sterling strengthening up against most the major currencies with GBP EUR rates up over 1.21 and GBP USD over 1.67 which are key levels to breach. Should we see Sterling sustain above these levels it could result in further moves higher for the Pound.