Currency Market Outlook Week Commencing 3rd Feb

The week starts off quietly today with UK, US and Eurozone manufacturing data the major data releases today. With the same figures all out on the same day it will give an excellent chance for comparison of the three major economies and so should one economy post particularly strong figures we may see that currency strengthen. On Tuesday the day starts with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision where interest rates are expected to remain on hold at 2.5%, following on from this we have unemployment figures in Spain which are expected to show unemployment increases in what is already a very troubled economy. Tuesday ends with New Zealand unemployment figures which is expected to show a marginal drop which will bring some good news to the NZD which has pushed over the NZD2 mark against Sterling.

Wednesday brings retail sales figures for the Eurozone which will give an indication as to how French retailers performed in January and the hope is these figures will have picked up bringing with it some Euro strength. In the afternoon we have employment figures for the States which is again another key economic data set and could provide a lot of volatility for the USD if the figures come out different to expected. Thursday is probably the key day for Sterling and the Euro with interest rates for both the UK and Eurozone. Both are expected to remain on hold but the accompanying statement from the European Central Bank (ECB) could provide an insight into the thinking of the ECB and in the UK all eyes will be on the UK’s Quantitative Easing (QE), if it is decided to follow in the US’s steps and start reducing the QE programme we may see some major GBP movement, so for anyone with a currency requirement Thursday could be vital.

The week finishes with Swiss Franc retail sales, UK production figures and possibly most importantly Canadian and American unemployment numbers both of which could lead to significant movement on the currency markets, so if you need to buy CAD or USD make sure you speak with us soon to discuss the options available to you.

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