Will The UK Fall Into Recession and What Would The Impact be on Sterling?

Tomorrow morning we will hear the long awaited Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the UK which will confirm whether or not the UK is back in recession. There is a great debate not only in our office but across the UK surrounding what people think the figures will show, recently the National Institute for Economic Research (NIESR) stated that they expected growth of 0.1% while other estimates have forecasted the economy shrinking by 0.1% which highlights just how tight it is. Personally I can’t call it but the recent negative data releases for the UK have me leaning slightly towards the side of negative growth and therefore recession. The issue we face is that because the result of tomorrow is so unpredictable it is hard for the market to price in its expectations which means the chance of large currency movements following the data release is significant. If we fall into recession we could see Sterling exchange rates fall significantly against the majority of major currencies however the reverse is also true and if we are found to have escaped recession and the economy has grown even by a meagre 0.1% then we could see the Pound strengthen.

With such a tight decision in the offing anyone with a currency requirement whether it is an imminent requirement or a longer term currency need make be wise to speak with one of our experienced currency brokers who will be happy to discuss your currency requirements and the different options available to you. At Foreign Currency Direct plc we offer a number of different contract options all of which can be tailored to our clients individual needs. To find out more about these different contract options and how tomorrows data release could effect your currency transfer please call us today on 01494 849752 or alternatively email us on trh@currencies.co.uk.